Predicting COVID-19 epidemiological trend by applying population mobility data in two-stage modeling / 浙江大学学报·医学版

:To predict the epidemiological trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by mathematical modeling based on the population mobility and the epidemic prevention and control measures. : As of February 8，2020，the information of 151 confirmed cases in Yueqing，Zhejiang province were obtained，including patients' infection process，population mobility between Yueqing and Wuhan，etc. To simulate and predict the development trend of COVID-19 in Yueqing, the study established two-stage mathematical models，integrating the population mobility data with the date of symptom appearance of confirmed cases and the transmission dynamics of imported and local cases. : It was found that in the early stage of the pandemic，the number of daily imported cases from Wuhan (using the date of symptom appearance) was positively associated with the number of population travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing on the same day and 6 and 9 days before that. The study predicted that the final outbreak size in Yueqing would be 170 according to the number of imported cases estimated by consulting the population number travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing and the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model; while the number would be 165 if using the reported daily number of imported cases. These estimates were close to the 170，the actual monitoring number of cases in Yueqing as of April 27，2020. : The two-stage modeling approach used in this study can accurately predict COVID-19 epidemiological trend.

Prevalence of HIV infection and predictors for syphilis infection among female sex workers in southern China.

The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors for syphilis infection among female sex workers (FSWs) in Liuzhou City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, southern China. A cross-sectional study recruited FSWs using a venue-based method and subsequent snowball sampling with mapping strategies. Questionnaire-based interviews were conducted to collect demographic and behavioral information. Blood was tested for syphilis (RPR with TPPA confirmation) and HIV (EIA with Western blot confirmation) infections. Of the 362 eligible participants, 81.7% were non-local residents (60.5% from other parts of Guangxi and 21.2% were non-Guangxi residents); 58.0% belonged to non-Han minority ethnic groups; 37.5% reported inconsistent condom use with their clients and 71.2% reported inconsistent condom use with their regular sex partners during the past month. Nearly 10% reported having had sex with drug users. The prevalence rates for HIV and syphilis infections were 2.3% and 11.0%, respectively. Almost half (46.6%) of participants reported having had STD symptoms. Inconsistent condom use with clients in the past month (AOR = 5.0; 95% CI = 1.8-13.8), less education (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-7.4), and HIV infection (AOR = 8.1; 95% CI = 1.1-68.5) were independently associated with syphilis infection.

Predictors of unprotected sex among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

To estimate the prevalence of HIV and syphilis and to assess the predictors of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Beijing, a community-based survey recruited MSM in 2005 through internet advertisement, community outreach, and peer referral. Demographic, sexual, and HIV risk behavioral information were collected. Serospecimens were tested for HIV and syphilis infections. Of the 526 participants, 3.2% were HIV-positive, 11.2% syphilis-positive, 50% and 43.3% had UAI with regular and casual sex partners, respectively. Participants practicing UAI with regular male partners were independently associated with lower monthly income (adjusted odds ratio-AOR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and encountering male sex partners at bathhouses, public washrooms, and parks (AOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.0-4.9). Participants practicing UAI with casual male partners were associated with encountering male sex partners at bathhouses, publics washrooms, and park (AOR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.8-5.2) and more male sex partners having receptive anal intercourse (AOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9), and was inversely associated with receiving money for sex with men (AOR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). Professional male sex workers were less likely to practice UAI in Beijing, suggesting the benefits of educational outreach to date. Further education, condom promotion, and prevention of sexually transmitted infections should be intensified urgently to combat the rising HIV epidemic among MSM in Beijing.

Sources of data for improved surveillance of HIV/AIDS in China.

The objective of this paper is to describe the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome surveillance in mainland China, with a focus on reviewing the sources of data being used for improved surveillance of HIV/AIDS. We review the development of HIV/AIDS surveillance and its multiple data sources to monitor the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in China. The surveillance system for HIV/AIDS in China was initiated in 1986. It has evolved in three stages: (1) passive surveillance, (2) HIV sentinel surveillance with coexisting active surveillance and passive surveillance, and (3) comprehensive surveillance. In parallel with the evolution of the surveillance system itself, the HIV epidemic in China has gone through increasing stages of complexity, through an Introduction Phase, a Spreading Phase, and a Rapidy Spreading Phase. More reliable data from improved surveillance suggest that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is expanding in China. HIV infections among 2005 estimates remain concentrated among injection drug users (IDUs), those buying and selling sex, and men who have sex with men. Better HIV/AIDS surveillance synthesizes multiple data sources to provide a more accurate picture of the dynamics of specific HIV/AIDS circumstances in different areas of China. Improved surveillance is meaningful insofar as data are used to implement more effective HIV prevention programs in China. Support for surveillance and strategic analyses can enable policy decision makers to make more effective program choices and mobilize adequate resources to contain HIV.

Frequent HTLV-1 infection in the offspring of Peruvian women with HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis or strongyloidiasis

OBJECTIVES: To describe the frequency of HTLV-1 infection among offspring of mothers who had presented with HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP), strongyloidiasis, or asymptomatic HTLV-1 infection, and to identify factors associated with HTLV-1 infection. METHODS: In a descriptive study, records were reviewed of HTLV-1-positive women and their offspring who had been tested for HTLV infection at a public hospital in Lima, Peru, from 1989 to 2003. Sons and daughters of women who had presented with strongyloidiasis, HAM/TSP, or asymptomatic infection were eligible for this study. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy subjects were included: 279 were the offspring of 104 mothers presenting with HAM/TSP, 58 were the offspring of 22 mothers with strongyloidiasis, and 33 were the offspring of 26 asymptomatic mothers. Mean age of the offspring at the time of testing was 26 years (standard deviation 12). Nineteen percent of the offspring tested positive for HTLV-1: 6 percent (2/33) of those with asymptomatic mothers, 19 percent (52/279) among the offspring of mothers with HAM/TSP, and 31 percent (18/58) among the offspring of mothers presenting with strongyloidiasis On multiple logistic regression analysis, three factors were significantly associated with HTLV-1: (a) duration of breast-feeding (odds ratio [OR] = 15.1; [4.2-54.1] for 12 to 24 months versus less than 6 months breast-feeding); (b) clinical condition of the mother (OR = 8.3 [1.0-65.3] for HAM/TSP and OR = 11.5 [1.4-98.4] for strongyloidiasis in comparison with offspring of asymptomatic mothers); and (c) transfusion history (OR = 5.5 [2.0-15.2]). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to known risk factors for HTLV-1 transmission (duration of breast-feeding and history of blood transfusion), maternal HAM/TSP and strongyloidiasis were associated with seropositivity among offspring of HTLV-1-infected mothers.

OBJETIVOS: Describir la frecuencia de la infección por HTLV-1 en los hijos e hijas de madres diagnosticadas con mielopatía/paraparesia espástica tropical asociada con el HTLV-1 (M/PET-HTLV-1), estrongiloidiasis o infección asintomática por HTLV-1, e identificar los factores asociados con la infección por HTLV-1. MÉTODOS: Para este estudio descriptivo se revisaron los registros de mujeres positivas a HTLV-1 y de sus hijos evaluados con pruebas para la infección por HTLV en un hospital público de Lima, Perú, entre 1989 y 2003. Eran elegibles para este estudio los hijos y las hijas de las mujeres que se presentaron con estrongiloidiasis, M/PET-HTLV-1 o infección asintomática. RESULTADOS: En el estudio participaron 370 personas: 279 hijos de 104 madres con M/PET-HTLV-1, 58 hijos de 22 madres con estrongiloidiasis y 33 hijos de 26 madres asintomáticas. La edad promedio de los participantes en el momento de su prueba para HTLV era de 26 años (desviación estándar: 12 años). De las personas estudiadas, 19 por ciento resultaron positivas a la infección por HTLV-1: 6 por ciento (2/33) de los hijos de madres asintomáticas, 19 por ciento (52/279) de los hijos de madres con M/PET-HTLV-1 y 31 por ciento (18/58) de los hijos de madres con estrongiloidiasis. Según el análisis de regresión logística múltiple, tres factores se asociaron significativamente con la infección por HTLV-1: a) duración de la lactancia materna por 12_24 meses (razón de posibilidades [odds ratio, OR] = 15,1; intervalo de confianza de 95 por ciento [IC95 por ciento]: 4,2 a 54,1, frente a la lactancia materna por menos de 6 meses); b) que la madre presentara M/PET-HTLV-1 o estrongiloidiasis (OR = 8,3; IC95 por ciento: 1,0 a 65,3 y OR = 11,5; IC95 por ciento: 1,4 a 98,4, respectivamente, en comparación con los hijos de madres asintomáticas); y c) los antecedentes de haber recibido una transfusión sanguínea (OR = 5,5; IC95 por ciento: 2,0 a 15,2). CONCLUSIONES: Además de los factores...

Regional journals in medicine and public health: A look to the future upon the indexing of the Revista Chilena de Infectología

Revista Chilena de Infectología has recently been accepted for index listing in the Index Medicus via the MEDLINE data base. This breakthrough prompts reflection on the nature of regionally focused subspecialty journals and what such a listing means for better dissemination of scientific and medical discoveries reported in such journals. There is a conscientious global effort at present to better represent regional journals in indexing systems and to make access easier for persons in less wealthy nations to medical and public health information via the internet. These trends are reviewed and discussed in the context of Chile's national medical and public health literature.